The upcoming elections in Delhi promises to be a very exciting contest between two parties (I'm completely discounting any effect that the Congress could have on the outcome).The BJP, on the one hand, seeks to ride the much celebrated Modi wave, while the AAP on the other, intends to obstruct the saffron juggernaut with its promise of transparency and populism. Hence, I chose to mark my return to this blog after what represents an era in blogging chronology to present an objective analysis on what would be a good choice for a prospective voter. The intent behind this analysis is more for enhancing my understanding of the capital's political atmosphere than as a pretension on which is the better voting choice. Your criticism is graciously solicited in the comments below.
Methodology
In order to arrive at a decision, I have chosen four parameters on the basis of which I would assign a score to each of these parties. Further I have assigned different weights to these parameters to arrive at a final score and a decision. I have tried my best to reach an objective decision on how these parties would score in each of these parameters.
The parameters chosen are:
1. Vision - What the party seeks to do in its term: Includes the intentions of the leaders of the party, the manifesto and the various subjects on which the parties have chosen to highlight (Eg: Women's saftey)
2. Experience - What each party's leaders bring to the table on the basis of their past experience in governance and their track record.
3. Team Chemistry - How the team gels in the run up to the elections could be used a fair estimation of how coherently they would function during their term in office. Also, Delhi is a state that is highly dependent on central government. This must be factored in.
4. Transparency - How clean their governance would be whilst in power. A score is arrived at by looking at the manifestos, the issues they highlight during pre-poll speeches and openness with sources of party funding and expenditure.
The weightage attached to each of these parameters is tabulated below:
Scoring
Vision:
The BJP, in recent times, has sought to distance itself from the Hindutva agendas that were a hallmark of its campaigns in the past. They have instead chosen to project the upcoming term as another cog in the wheel of Narendra Modi's mammoth machinery. Their chief ministerial candidate has a track record of being an achiever who has overcome the odds to become the first woman IPS officer and gone on to build a name for herself during her tenure. However, the BJP vision lacks any concrete steps on what it seeks to do in the national capital. The fact that an outsider who has been a fiercely vocal critic of the BJP has assumed the title of its chief ministerial candidate a mere month before the election does not sit very well with a long term vision. The BJP's new-found habit of choosing not to release its election manifesto until the eleventh hour doesn't help its cause at all.
The only instance where the party has elaborated on what it seeks to do in power is captured in what Kiran Bedi calls her 6P agenda for Delhi, albeit very loosely. What the people of the state need are not abstractions, but concrete measures.
The BJP scores 3/10 on its vision.
The AAP has been founded by people who had carved out for themselves successful careers in the public space outside of political intentions. They then chose to give up those careers to be the change their frustrated selves wanted to see in Indian politics. 2 years from their date of founding, they have been on a roller-coaster ride where an unexpected turn of events saw them in power as a part of a weak coalition government only to be maligned after Arvind Kejriwal resigned in a mere 49 days. In recent times, the party has been far more measured in making pre-poll promises and has drifted slowly from transparency to populism in its campaign slogans. The recently released AAP manifesto exemplifies this shift, where plenty of promises have been made without any specific deadlines or the means to explain the government's wherewithal to execute them when in power. However, it is still a start, as most of the intentions seem rightly placed. Some of the promising agendas mentioned in the manifesto include decentralisation of administration to Mohalla Sabhas and Gram Sabhas, an audit of power and water companies supplying to Delhi and instituting local bodies for enhancing woman safety. With a population of more than 16 million, Delhi is more populous than 11 of India's other states, making the request for full statehood a legitimate one. However, the means to implement these ideas hasn't been spelt out and some sweeping and arbitrary promises, such as making schools and healthcare services on par with the private sector are rather unconvincing. A more detailed breakdown of the manifesto is available here.
The AAP gets 6.5/10 for its vision.
Experience:
With roots that date back to the Bharatiya Jan Sangh, the BJP leadership has plenty of veteran leaders at the centre, with the prime minister at the helm. However, the same cannot be said of the BJP's Delhi unit. Having been out of power for 15 years in the state, the party's struggle to find a chief ministerial candidate saw it resorting to bring in an inexperienced outsider merely a month before the elections. In spite of all these constraints the state unit would definitely benefit from the advice and direction of leaders in the centre. Recent victories across the country has made BJP the party that rules the majority of India's states.
The BJP scores a 6/10 for experience.
Where the BJP lacks in vision, the AAP falls short in experience. Its resignation after 49 days in power and the absence of leaders with political experience leaves the AAP wanting in this criterion. The only consolation that the party has is that many of its senior leaders have served in the public space. This lack of experience is sure to haunt the government in dealing with both the people as well as administrative officials such as bureaucrats and state government employees. In recent times, the party has laid emphasis on its performance in office during its 49 day tenure as the proof of the pudding. The pudding, however, seems half baked at best.
The AAP scores 3/10 for its experience or its sore lack thereof.
Team Chemistry:
An already fractioned segment of the BJP, its Delhi state unit seems torn apart completely after the introduction of Kiran Bedi as the chief ministerial candidate. A lot of clamour has erupted from the rank and file of the party and this discontent has freely spilt into the media exposing the disunity of the BJP camp. Even as I type this out, Bedi's election campaign in charge, Narendra Tandon, has tendered his resignation over differences with her. Kiran Bedi's reputation as a loose cannon and her evident lack of a vision or a plan of action for the state hasn't helped matters with party colleagues having to justify her remarks, which have constantly been attacked by the AAP. In addition to BJP's CM candidate, disillusioned former AAP members who have now joined the party are seen as opportunists by the party and public. The only saving grace is the party's presence at the centre, which is important for the heavily subsidised state.
The BJP team scores 3/10 for its dismal Team Chemistry.
The AAP has had its share of differences to sift through, with Arvind Kejriwal's leadership style coming under question on several occasions. This has resulted in the exit of high profile members such as Shazia Ilmi and Capt. Gopinath, culminating in a full blown crisis in June 2014, with Kejriwal and Yogendra Yadav falling out with each other. That the party has weathered that crisis and held it together to emerge as a challenger for the Delhi elections seems to indicate that its team chemistry is on the mend, but this sentiment is challenged yet again with its patron Shanti Bhusan seeming to indicate that all the AAP could do with better leadership.
The AAP scores 4/10 for its Team Chemistry
Transparency:
Both the Congress and the BJP had come down for incisive attacks for their lack of transparency and unwillingness to tackle corruption. That the India Against Corruption movement had to do its job in highlighting corruption in the central government does not speak of very highly of its resolve. An Economist article points to how more than 91.3% of the party's campaign funds for the general elections came from unlisted sources. As a long standing player in Indian politics, the BJP knows every trick in the book when it comes to purchasing votes. The party is also fielding the maximum number of candidates with criminal offences against them during this election. However, this measure does not differentiate on the basis of the gravity of the offences the candidates have been booked for. The fact that a crusader against corruption and an officer with a clean reputation leads the charge is the silver lining in the BJP's case.
The BJP scores a 5/10 for its transparency.
While the AAP has been founded on the principles of transparency in governance, a few recent reports seem to indicate their drift towards opportunism on abandoning this pedestal. With 23 tainted candidates in the fray and the candidate with the second largest declared assets, Parmila Tokar, the AAP can no longer be seen as a bastion for transparency. However, the party continues to publicly declare its source of funds on its website. As opposed to its opposition, the AAP has no track record of corruption in public service among its members, ensuring that it has an edge where transparency is concerned.
The AAP scores a 6/10 in terns of transparency.
The Results
In order to ascertain the final score, the individual scores for each criteria are multiplied with the weightage.
The BJP scores 3 x 0.3 + 6 x 0.25 + 3 x 0.25 + 4 x 0.20 = 4.15
The AAP scores 6 x 0.3 + 3 x 0.25 + 4 x 0.25 + 6 x 0.20 = 4.75
It is seen that the AAP wins this analysis by a nose. This whole exercise was pertinent only because I could not separate these parties by much, which is reflected in the results of the analysis. Hence, it became necessary for me to breakdown my assessment objectively and assign weights.
In conclusion, I'm willing to afford the AAP another chance after their first 49 day debacle. It is not as if the BJP has been without its chances in all these years. Besides, Kejriwal has had the courage to own up his mistake publicly, which the country's political class is extremely averse to today. Further, the AAP campaign seems to mirror the clarity and purpose that the BJP government had during the general elections, with "Ab ki baar Modi sarkar" being replaced with "Paanch Saal Kejriwal." While the BJP posters in the Delhi Metro and its roadside hoardings sport the solitary saffron figure of Modi overshadowing everything else (Big Brother anyone?), I'm willing to lay my wager on a fresh perspective in which I can see a bit of my own idealistic tendencies reflected.
Methodology
In order to arrive at a decision, I have chosen four parameters on the basis of which I would assign a score to each of these parties. Further I have assigned different weights to these parameters to arrive at a final score and a decision. I have tried my best to reach an objective decision on how these parties would score in each of these parameters.
The parameters chosen are:
1. Vision - What the party seeks to do in its term: Includes the intentions of the leaders of the party, the manifesto and the various subjects on which the parties have chosen to highlight (Eg: Women's saftey)
2. Experience - What each party's leaders bring to the table on the basis of their past experience in governance and their track record.
3. Team Chemistry - How the team gels in the run up to the elections could be used a fair estimation of how coherently they would function during their term in office. Also, Delhi is a state that is highly dependent on central government. This must be factored in.
4. Transparency - How clean their governance would be whilst in power. A score is arrived at by looking at the manifestos, the issues they highlight during pre-poll speeches and openness with sources of party funding and expenditure.
The weightage attached to each of these parameters is tabulated below:
| Parameter | Weight |
| Vision | 30% |
| Experience | 25% |
| Team Chemistry | 25% |
| Transparency | 20% |
Scoring
Vision:
The BJP, in recent times, has sought to distance itself from the Hindutva agendas that were a hallmark of its campaigns in the past. They have instead chosen to project the upcoming term as another cog in the wheel of Narendra Modi's mammoth machinery. Their chief ministerial candidate has a track record of being an achiever who has overcome the odds to become the first woman IPS officer and gone on to build a name for herself during her tenure. However, the BJP vision lacks any concrete steps on what it seeks to do in the national capital. The fact that an outsider who has been a fiercely vocal critic of the BJP has assumed the title of its chief ministerial candidate a mere month before the election does not sit very well with a long term vision. The BJP's new-found habit of choosing not to release its election manifesto until the eleventh hour doesn't help its cause at all.
The only instance where the party has elaborated on what it seeks to do in power is captured in what Kiran Bedi calls her 6P agenda for Delhi, albeit very loosely. What the people of the state need are not abstractions, but concrete measures.
The BJP scores 3/10 on its vision.
The AAP has been founded by people who had carved out for themselves successful careers in the public space outside of political intentions. They then chose to give up those careers to be the change their frustrated selves wanted to see in Indian politics. 2 years from their date of founding, they have been on a roller-coaster ride where an unexpected turn of events saw them in power as a part of a weak coalition government only to be maligned after Arvind Kejriwal resigned in a mere 49 days. In recent times, the party has been far more measured in making pre-poll promises and has drifted slowly from transparency to populism in its campaign slogans. The recently released AAP manifesto exemplifies this shift, where plenty of promises have been made without any specific deadlines or the means to explain the government's wherewithal to execute them when in power. However, it is still a start, as most of the intentions seem rightly placed. Some of the promising agendas mentioned in the manifesto include decentralisation of administration to Mohalla Sabhas and Gram Sabhas, an audit of power and water companies supplying to Delhi and instituting local bodies for enhancing woman safety. With a population of more than 16 million, Delhi is more populous than 11 of India's other states, making the request for full statehood a legitimate one. However, the means to implement these ideas hasn't been spelt out and some sweeping and arbitrary promises, such as making schools and healthcare services on par with the private sector are rather unconvincing. A more detailed breakdown of the manifesto is available here.
The AAP gets 6.5/10 for its vision.
Experience:
With roots that date back to the Bharatiya Jan Sangh, the BJP leadership has plenty of veteran leaders at the centre, with the prime minister at the helm. However, the same cannot be said of the BJP's Delhi unit. Having been out of power for 15 years in the state, the party's struggle to find a chief ministerial candidate saw it resorting to bring in an inexperienced outsider merely a month before the elections. In spite of all these constraints the state unit would definitely benefit from the advice and direction of leaders in the centre. Recent victories across the country has made BJP the party that rules the majority of India's states.
The BJP scores a 6/10 for experience.
Where the BJP lacks in vision, the AAP falls short in experience. Its resignation after 49 days in power and the absence of leaders with political experience leaves the AAP wanting in this criterion. The only consolation that the party has is that many of its senior leaders have served in the public space. This lack of experience is sure to haunt the government in dealing with both the people as well as administrative officials such as bureaucrats and state government employees. In recent times, the party has laid emphasis on its performance in office during its 49 day tenure as the proof of the pudding. The pudding, however, seems half baked at best.
The AAP scores 3/10 for its experience or its sore lack thereof.
Team Chemistry:
An already fractioned segment of the BJP, its Delhi state unit seems torn apart completely after the introduction of Kiran Bedi as the chief ministerial candidate. A lot of clamour has erupted from the rank and file of the party and this discontent has freely spilt into the media exposing the disunity of the BJP camp. Even as I type this out, Bedi's election campaign in charge, Narendra Tandon, has tendered his resignation over differences with her. Kiran Bedi's reputation as a loose cannon and her evident lack of a vision or a plan of action for the state hasn't helped matters with party colleagues having to justify her remarks, which have constantly been attacked by the AAP. In addition to BJP's CM candidate, disillusioned former AAP members who have now joined the party are seen as opportunists by the party and public. The only saving grace is the party's presence at the centre, which is important for the heavily subsidised state.
The BJP team scores 3/10 for its dismal Team Chemistry.
The AAP has had its share of differences to sift through, with Arvind Kejriwal's leadership style coming under question on several occasions. This has resulted in the exit of high profile members such as Shazia Ilmi and Capt. Gopinath, culminating in a full blown crisis in June 2014, with Kejriwal and Yogendra Yadav falling out with each other. That the party has weathered that crisis and held it together to emerge as a challenger for the Delhi elections seems to indicate that its team chemistry is on the mend, but this sentiment is challenged yet again with its patron Shanti Bhusan seeming to indicate that all the AAP could do with better leadership.
The AAP scores 4/10 for its Team Chemistry
Transparency:
Both the Congress and the BJP had come down for incisive attacks for their lack of transparency and unwillingness to tackle corruption. That the India Against Corruption movement had to do its job in highlighting corruption in the central government does not speak of very highly of its resolve. An Economist article points to how more than 91.3% of the party's campaign funds for the general elections came from unlisted sources. As a long standing player in Indian politics, the BJP knows every trick in the book when it comes to purchasing votes. The party is also fielding the maximum number of candidates with criminal offences against them during this election. However, this measure does not differentiate on the basis of the gravity of the offences the candidates have been booked for. The fact that a crusader against corruption and an officer with a clean reputation leads the charge is the silver lining in the BJP's case.
The BJP scores a 5/10 for its transparency.
While the AAP has been founded on the principles of transparency in governance, a few recent reports seem to indicate their drift towards opportunism on abandoning this pedestal. With 23 tainted candidates in the fray and the candidate with the second largest declared assets, Parmila Tokar, the AAP can no longer be seen as a bastion for transparency. However, the party continues to publicly declare its source of funds on its website. As opposed to its opposition, the AAP has no track record of corruption in public service among its members, ensuring that it has an edge where transparency is concerned.
The AAP scores a 6/10 in terns of transparency.
The Results
In order to ascertain the final score, the individual scores for each criteria are multiplied with the weightage.
The BJP scores 3 x 0.3 + 6 x 0.25 + 3 x 0.25 + 4 x 0.20 = 4.15
The AAP scores 6 x 0.3 + 3 x 0.25 + 4 x 0.25 + 6 x 0.20 = 4.75
It is seen that the AAP wins this analysis by a nose. This whole exercise was pertinent only because I could not separate these parties by much, which is reflected in the results of the analysis. Hence, it became necessary for me to breakdown my assessment objectively and assign weights.
In conclusion, I'm willing to afford the AAP another chance after their first 49 day debacle. It is not as if the BJP has been without its chances in all these years. Besides, Kejriwal has had the courage to own up his mistake publicly, which the country's political class is extremely averse to today. Further, the AAP campaign seems to mirror the clarity and purpose that the BJP government had during the general elections, with "Ab ki baar Modi sarkar" being replaced with "Paanch Saal Kejriwal." While the BJP posters in the Delhi Metro and its roadside hoardings sport the solitary saffron figure of Modi overshadowing everything else (Big Brother anyone?), I'm willing to lay my wager on a fresh perspective in which I can see a bit of my own idealistic tendencies reflected.
4 comments:
Delightful read bro! Good analysis. grounded in reality. keep it up.
Looks like a article where a teacher MOM just gave a few less marks to the topper so that her son could top. And the entire exercise is not perceived as bias.
Not doing a critique, just some stuff which seems out of place.
"...obstruct the saffron juggernaut with its promise of transparency and populism"
The word populism has mostly been bandied about in the media. The 3 most commonly referred to points being water, electricity and education. Let's break these down:
1. Water: Free water up to 20000 KL for each household. The party said that certain things like water which are essential for survival become primary responsibility for a government so up to a certain threshold it is the duty of the government to provide free water (the threshold the party maintains, the actual figure they are happy to debate). Beyond that threshold, the user has to pay for the entire consumption. Here, the hope is conservation. Also, you get the free water if you have a water meter. Currently in Delhi, a number of house holds refuse to put meters so there is no measure of how much water is consumed.
2. Electricity: Free electricity has not been promised. The fact is that electricity prices have gone up since privatization. The party is not against privatization. They simply want the books to be audited to check if the costs are being reported correctly. Prima facie CAG has concluded there is a case of cooking of books. There was a similar allegation by the CAG in case of KG basin. Since in the Delhi, the companies are assured a 16% return, they can only boost their profits by inflating costs. No other party has even mentioned an audit. AAP estimates that once the audit is done, there should be a 50% reduction in tariffs.
3. Education: Free education till class 12 in govt (state) schools. Most developed nations do it, covered under RTE. If we can provide mid day meals to attract children (it is an incentive), likewise for fee.
Your ratings are your subjective prerogative but one thing seems odd when you talk about transparency. Firstly, Bedi is not squeaky clean for which she is credited.
More importantly, "....the candidate with the second largest declared assets, Parmila Tokar, the AAP can no longer be seen as a bastion for transparency." A candidate with the second highest assets means there is a lack of transparency. What the internal lokpal did was to check if these assets were disproportionate to declared income. When an individual files income tax, provides pan number, has known sources of legitimate income, files for wealth tax where eligible; that is a measure of transparency. This is mroe than what the law requires. Simply saying that a candidate is rich so there is no transparency seems off logic.
In city state like Delhi, if you own a house, you become a crorepati. A 100 sq yard house in middle class colony will be upward of 1 cr.
As far criminal cases go, Kejriwal has the most cases against him: these are mostly for civil disobedience, public order etc. Most politicians across India have these against them. AAP is the only party which ahs an internal Lokpal (not a member of the party, to prevent conflict). This Lokpal recommended removal of 2 persons after going through all cases and checking for legitimacy in terms of serious offences. These candidates were removed at the nth hour. Transparency simply means if everything has been declared/is open in the public domain. The analysis on this, even though it your subjective interpretation is based on well, a twisted definition of transparency.
PS- Bedi never made a name for herself, its been clever media strategy. I refer you to this:
http://www.hindustantimes.com/columnskaranthapar/ten-questions-for-kiran-bedi/article1-240600.aspx
This is 2007, so no political agenda here.
Dear Harsha and Abhijeet, thanks for your comments.
Dear Shashank,
One of my motives for writing this post was to stoke a response like yours. I am grateful for your having taken the time to provide it. It clarifies a lot of things that were fuzzy in my own head.
I would still stick to my assessment of a bias towards populism because it is my opinion that power and water is quite heavily subsidised, especially for the well to do. I would have changed my verdict if I had as much as heard the term cross subsidisation mentioned. However, I haven't.
As for Bedi's image, I hope you are not basing your entire judgement on an article that has been penned by Karan Thapar asking her questions without any response. Firstly, I do not trust our administrative systems enough for them to award officers who serve excellently (We live in a country where Ashok Khemka has been transferred 42 times). All that Karan seems to be riling about is the absence of certain awards from the police academy and a few counts of insubordination, which can easily be fabricated by someone with a vested agenda. He has completely overlooked her Police Gallantry Award, her Magsasay award and her United Nations medal for outstanding service, which I hold as better measures for merit than a particular police medal.
I agree with your views on transparency. I saw the logical fallacy there. What I was hinting at was that a party claiming to be for the Aam Aadmi and claims to be austere also has its share of deep pockets. But your point is well taken.
I tried digging deeper as to what the criminal charges against these politicians are. I found no information that could provide me more clarity and I have included this caveat in my article. However, it might be hard to believe that all the 23 AAP candidates have charges against them that are entirely frivolous.
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