The upcoming elections in Delhi promises to be a very exciting contest between two parties (I'm completely discounting any effect that the Congress could have on the outcome).The BJP, on the one hand, seeks to ride the much celebrated Modi wave, while the AAP on the other, intends to obstruct the saffron juggernaut with its promise of transparency and populism. Hence, I chose to mark my return to this blog after what represents an era in blogging chronology to present an objective analysis on what would be a good choice for a prospective voter. The intent behind this analysis is more for enhancing my understanding of the capital's political atmosphere than as a pretension on which is the better voting choice. Your criticism is graciously solicited in the comments below.
Methodology
In order to arrive at a decision, I have chosen four parameters on the basis of which I would assign a score to each of these parties. Further I have assigned different weights to these parameters to arrive at a final score and a decision. I have tried my best to reach an objective decision on how these parties would score in each of these parameters.
The parameters chosen are:
1. Vision - What the party seeks to do in its term: Includes the intentions of the leaders of the party, the manifesto and the various subjects on which the parties have chosen to highlight (Eg: Women's saftey)
2. Experience - What each party's leaders bring to the table on the basis of their past experience in governance and their track record.
3. Team Chemistry - How the team gels in the run up to the elections could be used a fair estimation of how coherently they would function during their term in office. Also, Delhi is a state that is highly dependent on central government. This must be factored in.
4. Transparency - How clean their governance would be whilst in power. A score is arrived at by looking at the manifestos, the issues they highlight during pre-poll speeches and openness with sources of party funding and expenditure.
The weightage attached to each of these parameters is tabulated below:
Scoring
Vision:
The BJP, in recent times, has sought to distance itself from the Hindutva agendas that were a hallmark of its campaigns in the past. They have instead chosen to project the upcoming term as another cog in the wheel of Narendra Modi's mammoth machinery. Their chief ministerial candidate has a track record of being an achiever who has overcome the odds to become the first woman IPS officer and gone on to build a name for herself during her tenure. However, the BJP vision lacks any concrete steps on what it seeks to do in the national capital. The fact that an outsider who has been a fiercely vocal critic of the BJP has assumed the title of its chief ministerial candidate a mere month before the election does not sit very well with a long term vision. The BJP's new-found habit of choosing not to release its election manifesto until the eleventh hour doesn't help its cause at all.
The only instance where the party has elaborated on what it seeks to do in power is captured in what Kiran Bedi calls her 6P agenda for Delhi, albeit very loosely. What the people of the state need are not abstractions, but concrete measures.
The BJP scores 3/10 on its vision.
The AAP has been founded by people who had carved out for themselves successful careers in the public space outside of political intentions. They then chose to give up those careers to be the change their frustrated selves wanted to see in Indian politics. 2 years from their date of founding, they have been on a roller-coaster ride where an unexpected turn of events saw them in power as a part of a weak coalition government only to be maligned after Arvind Kejriwal resigned in a mere 49 days. In recent times, the party has been far more measured in making pre-poll promises and has drifted slowly from transparency to populism in its campaign slogans. The recently released AAP manifesto exemplifies this shift, where plenty of promises have been made without any specific deadlines or the means to explain the government's wherewithal to execute them when in power. However, it is still a start, as most of the intentions seem rightly placed. Some of the promising agendas mentioned in the manifesto include decentralisation of administration to Mohalla Sabhas and Gram Sabhas, an audit of power and water companies supplying to Delhi and instituting local bodies for enhancing woman safety. With a population of more than 16 million, Delhi is more populous than 11 of India's other states, making the request for full statehood a legitimate one. However, the means to implement these ideas hasn't been spelt out and some sweeping and arbitrary promises, such as making schools and healthcare services on par with the private sector are rather unconvincing. A more detailed breakdown of the manifesto is available here.
The AAP gets 6.5/10 for its vision.
Experience:
With roots that date back to the Bharatiya Jan Sangh, the BJP leadership has plenty of veteran leaders at the centre, with the prime minister at the helm. However, the same cannot be said of the BJP's Delhi unit. Having been out of power for 15 years in the state, the party's struggle to find a chief ministerial candidate saw it resorting to bring in an inexperienced outsider merely a month before the elections. In spite of all these constraints the state unit would definitely benefit from the advice and direction of leaders in the centre. Recent victories across the country has made BJP the party that rules the majority of India's states.
The BJP scores a 6/10 for experience.
Where the BJP lacks in vision, the AAP falls short in experience. Its resignation after 49 days in power and the absence of leaders with political experience leaves the AAP wanting in this criterion. The only consolation that the party has is that many of its senior leaders have served in the public space. This lack of experience is sure to haunt the government in dealing with both the people as well as administrative officials such as bureaucrats and state government employees. In recent times, the party has laid emphasis on its performance in office during its 49 day tenure as the proof of the pudding. The pudding, however, seems half baked at best.
The AAP scores 3/10 for its experience or its sore lack thereof.
Team Chemistry:
An already fractioned segment of the BJP, its Delhi state unit seems torn apart completely after the introduction of Kiran Bedi as the chief ministerial candidate. A lot of clamour has erupted from the rank and file of the party and this discontent has freely spilt into the media exposing the disunity of the BJP camp. Even as I type this out, Bedi's election campaign in charge, Narendra Tandon, has tendered his resignation over differences with her. Kiran Bedi's reputation as a loose cannon and her evident lack of a vision or a plan of action for the state hasn't helped matters with party colleagues having to justify her remarks, which have constantly been attacked by the AAP. In addition to BJP's CM candidate, disillusioned former AAP members who have now joined the party are seen as opportunists by the party and public. The only saving grace is the party's presence at the centre, which is important for the heavily subsidised state.
The BJP team scores 3/10 for its dismal Team Chemistry.
The AAP has had its share of differences to sift through, with Arvind Kejriwal's leadership style coming under question on several occasions. This has resulted in the exit of high profile members such as Shazia Ilmi and Capt. Gopinath, culminating in a full blown crisis in June 2014, with Kejriwal and Yogendra Yadav falling out with each other. That the party has weathered that crisis and held it together to emerge as a challenger for the Delhi elections seems to indicate that its team chemistry is on the mend, but this sentiment is challenged yet again with its patron Shanti Bhusan seeming to indicate that all the AAP could do with better leadership.
The AAP scores 4/10 for its Team Chemistry
Transparency:
Both the Congress and the BJP had come down for incisive attacks for their lack of transparency and unwillingness to tackle corruption. That the India Against Corruption movement had to do its job in highlighting corruption in the central government does not speak of very highly of its resolve. An Economist article points to how more than 91.3% of the party's campaign funds for the general elections came from unlisted sources. As a long standing player in Indian politics, the BJP knows every trick in the book when it comes to purchasing votes. The party is also fielding the maximum number of candidates with criminal offences against them during this election. However, this measure does not differentiate on the basis of the gravity of the offences the candidates have been booked for. The fact that a crusader against corruption and an officer with a clean reputation leads the charge is the silver lining in the BJP's case.
The BJP scores a 5/10 for its transparency.
While the AAP has been founded on the principles of transparency in governance, a few recent reports seem to indicate their drift towards opportunism on abandoning this pedestal. With 23 tainted candidates in the fray and the candidate with the second largest declared assets, Parmila Tokar, the AAP can no longer be seen as a bastion for transparency. However, the party continues to publicly declare its source of funds on its website. As opposed to its opposition, the AAP has no track record of corruption in public service among its members, ensuring that it has an edge where transparency is concerned.
The AAP scores a 6/10 in terns of transparency.
The Results
In order to ascertain the final score, the individual scores for each criteria are multiplied with the weightage.
The BJP scores 3 x 0.3 + 6 x 0.25 + 3 x 0.25 + 4 x 0.20 = 4.15
The AAP scores 6 x 0.3 + 3 x 0.25 + 4 x 0.25 + 6 x 0.20 = 4.75
It is seen that the AAP wins this analysis by a nose. This whole exercise was pertinent only because I could not separate these parties by much, which is reflected in the results of the analysis. Hence, it became necessary for me to breakdown my assessment objectively and assign weights.
In conclusion, I'm willing to afford the AAP another chance after their first 49 day debacle. It is not as if the BJP has been without its chances in all these years. Besides, Kejriwal has had the courage to own up his mistake publicly, which the country's political class is extremely averse to today. Further, the AAP campaign seems to mirror the clarity and purpose that the BJP government had during the general elections, with "Ab ki baar Modi sarkar" being replaced with "Paanch Saal Kejriwal." While the BJP posters in the Delhi Metro and its roadside hoardings sport the solitary saffron figure of Modi overshadowing everything else (Big Brother anyone?), I'm willing to lay my wager on a fresh perspective in which I can see a bit of my own idealistic tendencies reflected.
Methodology
In order to arrive at a decision, I have chosen four parameters on the basis of which I would assign a score to each of these parties. Further I have assigned different weights to these parameters to arrive at a final score and a decision. I have tried my best to reach an objective decision on how these parties would score in each of these parameters.
The parameters chosen are:
1. Vision - What the party seeks to do in its term: Includes the intentions of the leaders of the party, the manifesto and the various subjects on which the parties have chosen to highlight (Eg: Women's saftey)
2. Experience - What each party's leaders bring to the table on the basis of their past experience in governance and their track record.
3. Team Chemistry - How the team gels in the run up to the elections could be used a fair estimation of how coherently they would function during their term in office. Also, Delhi is a state that is highly dependent on central government. This must be factored in.
4. Transparency - How clean their governance would be whilst in power. A score is arrived at by looking at the manifestos, the issues they highlight during pre-poll speeches and openness with sources of party funding and expenditure.
The weightage attached to each of these parameters is tabulated below:
| Parameter | Weight |
| Vision | 30% |
| Experience | 25% |
| Team Chemistry | 25% |
| Transparency | 20% |
Scoring
Vision:
The BJP, in recent times, has sought to distance itself from the Hindutva agendas that were a hallmark of its campaigns in the past. They have instead chosen to project the upcoming term as another cog in the wheel of Narendra Modi's mammoth machinery. Their chief ministerial candidate has a track record of being an achiever who has overcome the odds to become the first woman IPS officer and gone on to build a name for herself during her tenure. However, the BJP vision lacks any concrete steps on what it seeks to do in the national capital. The fact that an outsider who has been a fiercely vocal critic of the BJP has assumed the title of its chief ministerial candidate a mere month before the election does not sit very well with a long term vision. The BJP's new-found habit of choosing not to release its election manifesto until the eleventh hour doesn't help its cause at all.
The only instance where the party has elaborated on what it seeks to do in power is captured in what Kiran Bedi calls her 6P agenda for Delhi, albeit very loosely. What the people of the state need are not abstractions, but concrete measures.
The BJP scores 3/10 on its vision.
The AAP has been founded by people who had carved out for themselves successful careers in the public space outside of political intentions. They then chose to give up those careers to be the change their frustrated selves wanted to see in Indian politics. 2 years from their date of founding, they have been on a roller-coaster ride where an unexpected turn of events saw them in power as a part of a weak coalition government only to be maligned after Arvind Kejriwal resigned in a mere 49 days. In recent times, the party has been far more measured in making pre-poll promises and has drifted slowly from transparency to populism in its campaign slogans. The recently released AAP manifesto exemplifies this shift, where plenty of promises have been made without any specific deadlines or the means to explain the government's wherewithal to execute them when in power. However, it is still a start, as most of the intentions seem rightly placed. Some of the promising agendas mentioned in the manifesto include decentralisation of administration to Mohalla Sabhas and Gram Sabhas, an audit of power and water companies supplying to Delhi and instituting local bodies for enhancing woman safety. With a population of more than 16 million, Delhi is more populous than 11 of India's other states, making the request for full statehood a legitimate one. However, the means to implement these ideas hasn't been spelt out and some sweeping and arbitrary promises, such as making schools and healthcare services on par with the private sector are rather unconvincing. A more detailed breakdown of the manifesto is available here.
The AAP gets 6.5/10 for its vision.
Experience:
With roots that date back to the Bharatiya Jan Sangh, the BJP leadership has plenty of veteran leaders at the centre, with the prime minister at the helm. However, the same cannot be said of the BJP's Delhi unit. Having been out of power for 15 years in the state, the party's struggle to find a chief ministerial candidate saw it resorting to bring in an inexperienced outsider merely a month before the elections. In spite of all these constraints the state unit would definitely benefit from the advice and direction of leaders in the centre. Recent victories across the country has made BJP the party that rules the majority of India's states.
The BJP scores a 6/10 for experience.
Where the BJP lacks in vision, the AAP falls short in experience. Its resignation after 49 days in power and the absence of leaders with political experience leaves the AAP wanting in this criterion. The only consolation that the party has is that many of its senior leaders have served in the public space. This lack of experience is sure to haunt the government in dealing with both the people as well as administrative officials such as bureaucrats and state government employees. In recent times, the party has laid emphasis on its performance in office during its 49 day tenure as the proof of the pudding. The pudding, however, seems half baked at best.
The AAP scores 3/10 for its experience or its sore lack thereof.
Team Chemistry:
An already fractioned segment of the BJP, its Delhi state unit seems torn apart completely after the introduction of Kiran Bedi as the chief ministerial candidate. A lot of clamour has erupted from the rank and file of the party and this discontent has freely spilt into the media exposing the disunity of the BJP camp. Even as I type this out, Bedi's election campaign in charge, Narendra Tandon, has tendered his resignation over differences with her. Kiran Bedi's reputation as a loose cannon and her evident lack of a vision or a plan of action for the state hasn't helped matters with party colleagues having to justify her remarks, which have constantly been attacked by the AAP. In addition to BJP's CM candidate, disillusioned former AAP members who have now joined the party are seen as opportunists by the party and public. The only saving grace is the party's presence at the centre, which is important for the heavily subsidised state.
The BJP team scores 3/10 for its dismal Team Chemistry.
The AAP has had its share of differences to sift through, with Arvind Kejriwal's leadership style coming under question on several occasions. This has resulted in the exit of high profile members such as Shazia Ilmi and Capt. Gopinath, culminating in a full blown crisis in June 2014, with Kejriwal and Yogendra Yadav falling out with each other. That the party has weathered that crisis and held it together to emerge as a challenger for the Delhi elections seems to indicate that its team chemistry is on the mend, but this sentiment is challenged yet again with its patron Shanti Bhusan seeming to indicate that all the AAP could do with better leadership.
The AAP scores 4/10 for its Team Chemistry
Transparency:
Both the Congress and the BJP had come down for incisive attacks for their lack of transparency and unwillingness to tackle corruption. That the India Against Corruption movement had to do its job in highlighting corruption in the central government does not speak of very highly of its resolve. An Economist article points to how more than 91.3% of the party's campaign funds for the general elections came from unlisted sources. As a long standing player in Indian politics, the BJP knows every trick in the book when it comes to purchasing votes. The party is also fielding the maximum number of candidates with criminal offences against them during this election. However, this measure does not differentiate on the basis of the gravity of the offences the candidates have been booked for. The fact that a crusader against corruption and an officer with a clean reputation leads the charge is the silver lining in the BJP's case.
The BJP scores a 5/10 for its transparency.
While the AAP has been founded on the principles of transparency in governance, a few recent reports seem to indicate their drift towards opportunism on abandoning this pedestal. With 23 tainted candidates in the fray and the candidate with the second largest declared assets, Parmila Tokar, the AAP can no longer be seen as a bastion for transparency. However, the party continues to publicly declare its source of funds on its website. As opposed to its opposition, the AAP has no track record of corruption in public service among its members, ensuring that it has an edge where transparency is concerned.
The AAP scores a 6/10 in terns of transparency.
The Results
In order to ascertain the final score, the individual scores for each criteria are multiplied with the weightage.
The BJP scores 3 x 0.3 + 6 x 0.25 + 3 x 0.25 + 4 x 0.20 = 4.15
The AAP scores 6 x 0.3 + 3 x 0.25 + 4 x 0.25 + 6 x 0.20 = 4.75
It is seen that the AAP wins this analysis by a nose. This whole exercise was pertinent only because I could not separate these parties by much, which is reflected in the results of the analysis. Hence, it became necessary for me to breakdown my assessment objectively and assign weights.
In conclusion, I'm willing to afford the AAP another chance after their first 49 day debacle. It is not as if the BJP has been without its chances in all these years. Besides, Kejriwal has had the courage to own up his mistake publicly, which the country's political class is extremely averse to today. Further, the AAP campaign seems to mirror the clarity and purpose that the BJP government had during the general elections, with "Ab ki baar Modi sarkar" being replaced with "Paanch Saal Kejriwal." While the BJP posters in the Delhi Metro and its roadside hoardings sport the solitary saffron figure of Modi overshadowing everything else (Big Brother anyone?), I'm willing to lay my wager on a fresh perspective in which I can see a bit of my own idealistic tendencies reflected.
